A Bay–River Coupled Model for Storm Surge Prediction Along the Andhra Coast of India     

Neetu Agnihotri  P. Chittibabu  Indu Jain  P. C. Sinha  A. D. Rao  S. K. Dube 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):83-101

The paper describes a two-dimensional bay–river coupled numerical model for storm surges along the Andhra coast of India. The effect of the Krishna and Godavari rivers on the surge development is analysed. A comparative study of the surge generated by a tropical cyclone with and without the inclusion of rivers is done in detail. Three cyclones that struck the Andhra coast in November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 were used for the simulation studies. It is found that the idealized model without a river overestimates the sea-level elevation as compared to a more realistic bay–river coupled model. The temporal variation of surge values at the mouth of the rivers is also studied for all three cyclone cases. It is found that the effect of the presence of rivers depends on the strength of the cyclone, its point of landfall and the location of the rivers with respect to the landfall point.  相似文献   

Driving forces of tropical deforestation: The role of remote sensing and spatial models   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Rinku Roy Chowdhury 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2006,27(1):82-101

Remote sensing technologies are increasingly used to monitor landscape change in many parts of the world. While the availability of extensive and timely imagery from various satellite sensors can aid in identifying the rates and patterns of deforestation, modelling techniques can evaluate the socioeconomic and biophysical forces driving deforestation processes. This paper briefly reviews some emerging spatial methodologies aimed at identifying driving forces of land use change and applies one such methodology to understand deforestation in Mexico. Satellite image classification, change analysis and econometric modelling are used to identify the rates, hotspots and drivers of deforestation in a case study of the southern Yucatán peninsular region, an enumerated global hotspot of biodiversity and tropical deforestation. In particular, the relative roles of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in driving regional deforestation rates are evaluated. Such methodological approaches can be applied to other regions of the forested tropics and contribute insights to conservation planning and policy.  相似文献   

Deformability characteristics of brazilian laterites     

Jacques De Medina  Laura M. G. Motta  João D. G. Dos Santos 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(4):949-971

This paper summarizes the resilient and permanent deformation characteristics of laterite gravels, determined by cyclic loading in triaxial tests of compacted specimens. A study of laterite pavements was carried out on eight paved road sections in the state of Mato Grosso. Also reported is the influence of fine sand admixture, specimen size and soaking in two laterite samples from Roraima and Rondônia in the North of Brazil. The experimental relationships of resilient moduli against applied stresses are interpreted empirically for models what may be incorporated in a structural analysis of full depth of laterite pavement.  相似文献   

热带地区100 hPa东风气流的气候效应(Ⅱ): 与华北夏季降水的关系     

徐忠峰  钱永甫 《高原气象》2005,24(4):570-576

利用1954-1998年NCAR／NCEP再分析资料及同期我国160个测站月降水资料，分析了热带地区100hPa东风与华北夏季降水之间的关系。结果表明：（1）从春季到夏季，东风强度与华北夏季降水具有显著而稳定的正相关关系。（2）弱东风年夏季，印度洋及印度次大陆表面温度均为正异常，然而赤道印度洋地区的正异常明显强于其南北两侧。海温异常的这一分布特征，一方面使得100hPa东风减弱；另一方面使得南亚地区海陆热力对比减弱，导致南亚夏季风偏弱，进而造成由该季风区向华北地区的水汽输送减少，华北地区干旱。  相似文献   

2004年全球重大气候事件概述   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

郭艳君  任福民 《气象》2005,31(4):32-34

2004年全球气候持续偏暖。年初，暴雪席卷欧洲多国，美国受到罕见大雪袭击，南亚和墨西哥遭遇低温严寒。北半球夏秋季，西太平洋、大西洋热带风暴活动频繁。日本、菲律宾和美国受灾严重。年内，非洲、亚洲部分国家发生严重干旱；同时，南亚、南美洲及非洲多国暴雨致洪。年内，欧洲伊比利亚半岛、日本和澳大利亚遭遇高温热浪。  相似文献   

2001年全球重大气候事件概述   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李晓燕 《气象》2002,28(4):25-28

全球气候仍持续偏暖。亚洲大部出现异常冷冬，许多地区遇到数十年未见的风雪严寒；美国冬季也连续遭受暴风雪袭击。东亚、南亚、中亚有西亚发生了大范围的持久干旱，南亚、东南亚夏季暴雨频繁，造成严重洪涝灾害。欧洲、非洲及南美洲的许多国家和地区降水异常偏多，导致不同程度的洪水，俄罗斯西伯利亚地区发生百年不遇的大洪水。北大西洋飓风较常年显著偏多，西北太平洋台风也给沿海地区带来严重灾害。  相似文献   

影响华东地区热带气旋年频数与热带对流场的关系          下载免费PDF全文

周霞琼  葛旭阳等 《气象科学》2002,22(1):9-15

利用由美国NOAA系列卫星观测的OLR资料研究了影响华东地区热带气旋年频数（记为ATC）与热带对流场的关系，结果表明两者存在密切的联系：（1）当华东地区热带气旋年频数ATC为异常偏多（少）时，ITCZ位置累积距平为正（负）值，即ITCZ位置异常偏北（南）；（2）利用OLR设计了Walker综合指数WI，该指数的强弱可以反映ATC的异常情况，即当ATC为异常偏多（少）时，walker环流圈异常强（弱）；（3）OLR距平累积量场能较好的表征ATC异常年份所对应的低纬度及中高纬地区大气环流的配置，其可以作为预测影响华东地区热带气旋年频数的强信号。  相似文献   

1957-1996台风对中国降水的影响   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

Ren Fumin  Byron Gleason  David Easterling 《大气科学进展》2002,19(5):943-952

台风活动中国气候的重要特点之一，它能带来大量降水并造成严重的财产损失。在一些地区，台风降水甚至可以在总降水量中占很大比例。本文目的是研究那些对中国产生影响的台风并重点关注台风对中国降水的影响。文中涉及四个方面的工作。首先，研究了影响中国台风的频率，结果表明台风影响的主要季节为5－11月，尤其以7－9月频繁；在过去40年中影响台风的频率没有明显的变化趋势。第二，对台站台风降水的气候特征分析结果显示，海南和东南沿海地区受台风的影响最大，而且长江以南大部地区每年都受到台风的影响；另外，影响区域大部分地区的台风降水在过去40年中表现出下降的趋势，但是只有东北地区南部这种趋势是显著的。第三，对台风个例的分析表明，个例降水总量和影响面积之间存在着显著的线性关系。最后，对台风造成的中国范围降水总量进行了分析，初步结果显示台风降水总量在1957－1996年间显著减少。  相似文献   

影响我国北方的台风相似预报系统     

孙兴池  吴炜  赵宇 《山东气象》2002,22(1):8-9

普查建国以来影响我国北方的所有台风个例 ,建立了影响我国北方的台风详细历史资料库 ,对台风位置、形成季节、移向、天气形势等进行相似分析 ,并在MICAPS平台上 ,建立了短期和中期台风相似预报系统。  相似文献   

Rates of Deglaciation during the Last Glaciation and Holocene in the Cordillera Vilcanota-Quelccaya Ice Cap Region, Southeastern Perú     

Bryan G. Mark  Geoffrey O. Seltzer  Donald T. Rodbell  Adam Y. Goodman 《Quaternary Research》2002,57(3):287

Moraine chronology is combined with digital topography to model deglacial rates of paleoglacier volumes in both the Huancané Valley on the west side of the Quelccaya Ice Cap and the Upismayo Valley on the northwest side of the Cordillera Vilcanota. The fastest rates of deglaciation (39×10⁻⁵ to 114×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ and 112×10⁻⁵ to 247×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ for each valley, respectively) were calculated for the most recent paleoglaciers, corresponding to the last few centuries. These results are consistent with observations in the Venezuelan Andes showing high rates of deglaciation since the Little Ice Age. These rates also fall within the range of 20th century rates of deglaciation measured on the Quelccaya Ice Cap (29×10⁻⁵ to 220×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹, Brecher and Thompson, 1993; Thompson, 2000). These results imply that rates of deglaciation may fluctuate significantly over time and that high rates of deglaciation may not be exclusive to the late 20th century. Equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depressions for the ice volumes of the last glaciation modeled here were computed as 230 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap and 170 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota. Maximum ELA depressions are lower than previously published: <500 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota and <400 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap. These lower values could imply a topographic control over paleoglacier extent.  相似文献